1) I do not own any Apple stock. Watching the stock market following Apple’s Q4 earnings yesterday and into today, I’m reminded of a famous Steve Jobs quote. Reworked, the quote today would be: “If you’re investing based on Apple analysts, you blew it.”
Apple’s stock dropped 23.62 points today — over 5.5 percent. Again, the earnings announced yesterday. Over the past decade, Apple has routinely made analysts look foolish by destroying their estimates each and every quarter. Actually, it came back to bite Apple’s stock in the ass. The stock is being punished after a record September quarter for the company — their second best quarter ever — because the analysts were caught snoozing. Apple sold fewer iPhones in Q4 than analysts were projecting. Apple selling 20 to 22 million iPhones in Q4 would have been a new all-time record for the company. Typically, Q3 is a weak quarter for Apple in terms of iPhone sales, but again, this Q3 saw a record. The problem is that Apple typically refreshes the iPhone in June or July. Further, because previous new iPhones had been launched in June or July, Q4 (Apple’s fiscal quarter, not the calendar one) has traditionally been a very strong quarter for iPhone sales. Dediu is normally very, very good when it comes to Apple analysis. But he screwed up badly this quarter as well.
Yes, Apple had a weaker quarter than last quarter, but that should have been expected. It’s certainly possible that Apple could have a $40 billion quarter next quarter.
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